The pictorial journey through the German Bundesliga’s pre-holiday schedule continues with another meld of the round 15 attendance and round 16 “plans for fans” features that appeared last week on Bulinews.
Plenty for fans to share in on this matchday. “Competitive Distortion” be damned. It doesn’t matter if some clubs get an unfair advantage. Neither life nor football has ever been completely fair. Ask the triple-vaccinated!
Bundesliga Fan Scene Report–Week 15
As the Bundesliga prepares for the quick turnaround of midweek fixtures, we’re pleased to release our weekend attendance column early this week. The state of the Bundesliga fan scene still isn’t anywhere near where everyone wishes it would be, but there are many positive signs emerging from the nationwide data this weekend. Incident rates are falling practically everywhere.
While overall vaccine rates continue to climb up only very slowly, the rates of those receiving booster shots climbs rapidly. Almost overnight, 23.8 percent of the country’s population has gotten the additional booster. This extra layer of protection makes an enormous difference for the citizenry as a whole. All across the country, hospitals are clearing.
New German health minister Karl Lauterbach (SPD) struck a cautiously optimistic tone when addressing the numbers with public statements today. While it’s true that some German health offices may be underreporting cases, it’s also true that the same district-level reporting may drastically underestimate current vaccination rates. As always, the intensive care occupancy rates convey the most important data related to this public health challenge. That too looks positive.
Dr. Lauterbach calls the case declines “real” in a tweet this morning. In non-social-media related news, the new health minister has also proposed doing away with the so-called “2G+” regulation entirely. This would allow those citizens fully vaccinated to no longer have to obtain a negative PCR test in order to attend public events. Though Lauterbach’s coalition partners don’t necessarily agree and it will likely be left up to the states in general, the eventual removal of such a demanding restriction constitutes good news for everyone in the Bundesrepublik.
Dr. Lauterbach also addressed the case of Bayern and German national team midfielder Joshua Kimmich. Addressing all those who delayed the decision to get vaccinated, Lauterbach called upon more respect for those who have pushed their decision and advocated targeted outreach efforts to the unvaccinated. The state official also noted that “Many in intensive care units also deeply regret their decision to delay.”
FC Augsburg (at) 1. FC Köln
Planned capacity = 15,000 (30%)
Attendance = 15,000 (sold out)
Concept = 2G
The Domstädter–reliably one might add–sold their full allotment of tickets. Some 15,000 Geißböcke enthusiasts may not have gotten the result that they had hoped for, but surely enjoyed the privilege of cheering their team on in person. Atmospherics from the bleachers proved a genuine treat for all of us watching from afar. The leadership role this club has taken in combating the multi-year public health challenge that is the global pandemic always makes neutrals feel good about rooting for them.
As one can see from the local metrics below, Köln’s numbers continue to trend in the right direction. COVID hospitalizations remain up slightly, yet the proportion of beds being taken up by such patients don’t constitute a significant threat to the system. The falling incident rate shows just how well measures are working. With fingers firmly crossed, we’re all hoping for another packed house at the RheinEnergieStadion soon.
Local RKI Incidence Rate = 338.1 per 100,000 (-54.2)
Intensive Care Occupancy @ 93.3% (-1.8%)
60 COVID Hospitalizations (17.1%) (+1.1%)
NRW Vaccination Rate = 76.5% (+0.3%) (from four days ago)
FSV Mainz 05 (at) FC Bayern München
Planned capacity = Geisterspiel
Attendance = Geisterspiel
Concept = N/A
There remains little in the life of a football diehard more depressing than a Geisterspiel at the Allianz. Even if the match proves entertaining, there’s only so much of Thomas Müller’s “pitch patter” that one can stand. The numbers deliver plenty of good news insofar as Munich is concerned. The incidence rate has seen dramatic decreases in the state’s capital and all the outlying regions. Even Markus Söder will have to declare himself impressed and ease restrictions soon.
Local RKI Incidence Rate = 276.2 per 100,000 (-78.1)
Intensive Care Occupancy @ 93.1% (-1.5%)
137 COVID Hospitalizations (26.7%) (-0.9%)
Bavaria Vaccination Rate = 70.2% (+0.3%) (from four days ago)
Borussia Mönchengladbach (at) RB Leipzig
Planned capacity = Geisterspiel
Attendance = Geisterspiel
Concept = N/A
Not unlike Munich, the most populous city in the state of Saxon Proper sees a great deal of progress in terms of sinking “danger metrics”. There’s still a long way to go for this former East German state. The incidence rates remain far above the level one sees in other parts of the Bundesrepublik. Additionally, Saxony still hosts more bonafide “hot spots” (with incidence rates above 1,000 per 100,000) than any other state. The Saxon capital of Dresden only just got below 1,000 this weekend.
Local RKI Incidence Rate = 568 per 100,000 (-50.9)
Intensive Care Occupancy @ 85% (-3.8%)
65 COVID Hospitalizations (22.0%) (1.7%)
Saxon Proper Vaccination Rate = 61.8% (+0.4%) (from four days ago)
TSG 1899 Hoffenheim (at) SC Freiburg
Planned capacity = Geisterspiel
Attendance = Geisterspiel
Concept = N/A
Downward trends in Breisgau also leave one feeling hopeful that we can soon welcome back some of the Bundesliga’s liveliest supporters. Matters remain a bit complicated, however, in the very large (and not very logically cobbled together) German state of Baden-Württemberg. As even non-Germans can easily infer from the hyphenated name, it’s an arbitrarily drawn state. The biggest hotbed of vaccine resistance (outside of the former East Germany) also resides in this state. It may be some time before enough jabs find arms in “Querdenke Territory”.
Local RKI Incidence Rate = 386.2 per 100,000 (-18.0)
Intensive Care Occupancy @ 88.6% (-3.0%)
40 COVID Hospitalizations (22.3%) (-1.2%)
BaWü Vaccination Rate = 70.0% (+0.3%) (from four days ago)
Arminia Bielefeld (at) Hertha BSC
Planned capacity = 5,000 (6.7%)
Attendance = 5,000 (sold out)
Concept = 2G
Hertha had no problems finding 5,000 takers for the maximum amount of spectators the Berliner Senate allows under current restrictions. Needless to say, the atmospherics were pretty lame in the 74,000-seat-capacity Olympiastadion. Those who did attend could only produce echoes in a mostly empty cavern. At least a few boosters got the chance to see the team win.
One advantage held by a densely populated city such as the capital concerns the fact that more citizens can be corralled into vaccination drive sites. As one can see from the rate increase below, the inoculation quota went up by nearly an entire percentage point over the weekend. Most German papers of record carried pictures of such events in their Monday editions; a nice mood lifter with that initial workweek cup of coffee.
Local RKI Incidence Rate = 309.7 per 100,000 (-43.1)
Intensive Care Occupancy @ 89.7% (-2.4%)
256 COVID Hospitalizations (24.7%) (+1.0%)
Berlin City Vaccination Rate = 73.8% (+0.8%) (from four days ago)
Borussia Dortmund (at) VfL Bochum
Planned capacity = 13,800 (50%)
Attendance = 13,800 (sold out)
Concept = 2G
German fans were naturally delighted to see the fixture they had most been looking forward to this weekend sell out. The 1848 ultras did a marvelous job in their first top flight meeting with Dortmund in nearly 11 years. The supporters gave us all that we hoped for. Nary a German footballing anthem went unsung! Bravo, Kumpels!
Some data revisions over the weekend updated the actual number of intensive care beds in the city. Hence, the big upward trend in capacity levels. It still doesn’t look as if the municipality finds itself in any danger. Moreover, there’s no chance that the increases have anything to do with the football match. Only a data-lag of at least five days can assess such an indicator.
Local RKI Incidence Rate = 224.2 per 100,000 (+19.8)
Intensive Care Occupancy @ 91.5% (+5.3%)
14 COVID Hospitalizations (7.4%) (+0.8%)
NRW Vaccination Rate = 76.5% (+0.3%) (from four days ago)
VfB Stuttgart (at) VfL Wolfsburg
Planned capacity = 5,000 (16.67%)
Attendance = 5,000 (sell-out)
Concept = 2G+
The German state of Lower Saxony imposed new restrictions on outdoor events early last week. While Wolfsburg were permitted to put 13,000 tickets on sale for last week’s Champions’ League fixture, they ultimately had to comply with the new measures this weekend. For a time, it wasn’t clear if the VfL would be granted a dispensation. After all, there’s very little danger in the company town that rarely welcomes outside visitors.
The statewide restrictions come down particularly hard on a club that presently finds itself in total disarray. Sporting director Marcel Schäfer was made to look a supreme idiot this week, calling on fans to attend home fixtures apparently oblivious to the fact that the club would have to turn some patrons away. Sporting CEO Jörg Schmadtke looks like an even bigger idiot for installing Florian Kohfeldt as this team’s trainer.
One must take care not to conflate this club’s chaotic COVID policy with its chaotic footballing policy. The two are obviously unrelated. It still makes for a coincidentally grim dovetailed narrative. Yikes. The prediction that–just like in 2016/17 and 2017/18–this club could end up in the relegation playoff place might look as less farfetched as soon as the winter break. Losses to Köln and Bayern could conclude the Hin-runde. Not farfetched at all.
Local RKI Incidence Rate = 178.5 per 100,000 (-67.7)
Intensive Care Occupancy @ 48.4% (-3.2%)
5 COVID Hospitalizations (16.1%) (+3.2%)
Lower Saxony Vaccination Rate = 74.6% (+0.3%) (from four days ago)
FC Union Berlin (at) SpVgg Greuther Fürth
Planned capacity = Geisterspiel
Attendance = Geisterspiel
Concept = 2G
Such a tragedy. Greuther Fürth’s first home win ever in the top flight. And no supporters were allowed in to watch it live. The urge to get metaphysical creeps up. If Greuther Fürth wins at home in the Bundesliga and none of the locals are in the stadium to witness it, did it really happen? Okay. Maybe not deep enough for this day and age.
Now that we’re all familiar with the sound of one hand clapping, it’s time to pack away the pan-flute and forget about enlightened meditation. This poor forlorn footballing club desperately needs its fans. That applies to those of us stuck watching them as well. A world of hurt. The Bavarian metrics can’t change soon enough.
Local RKI Incidence Rate = 336.5 per 100,000 (-72.9)
Intensive Care Occupancy @ 83.0% (stable)
12 COVID Hospitalizations (30.8%) (+3.0%)
Bavaria Vaccination Rate = 70.2% (+0.3%) (from four days ago)
Bayer 04 Leverkusen (at) Eintracht Frankfurt
Planned capacity = 12,875 (25%)
Attendance = 12,000 (93.2%)
Concept = 2G
Those who opted to forgo a Sunday night fixture at Deutsche Bank Park ended up missing out on a great evening for the home team. Attendance was nevertheless very strong, as was the atmosphere. With local metrics appearing in good shape, it shouldn’t be too long before we get treated to the full SGE experience. Of course, we’ll be missing most of the club’s ultra groups until COVID’s endemic phase returns things back to something normal and acceptable too them.
Local RKI Incidence Rate = 285.0 per 100,000 (-39.8)
Intensive Care Occupancy @ 90.3% (-2.2%)
53 COVID Hospitalizations (20.2%) (+1.7%)
Hessen Vaccination Rate = 72.5% (+0.4%) (from four days ago)
After having a look at the weekend attendance figures yesterday, it’s already time to turn around and take a look at the German Bundesliga’s “plans for fans” during the midweek round. The German states of Baden-Württemberg, Bavaria, and Saxony will only be hosting two matches between them during this round. As a result, seven of the nine fixtures scheduled to take place this round will feature a significant number of live spectators.
That’s one piece of good news. Another concerns the fact that the Bundesrepublik’s “2G+” regulation should soon be a thing of the past. Bavarian governor Markus Söder (CSU) announced today that citizens who have received their initial vaccine dose/s plus their booster shot will no longer have to obtain a negative PCR test in order to gain access to public life. Other states and the federal government should soon follow suit.
For readers in country’s where most COVID-related restrictions have long been done away with, that might not seem like a particularly earth-shattering piece of news. In the German context, however, it counts for a lot. The added restriction had the most unfortunate effect of asking more of those who followed the prescriptions under which they were promised their civil liberties back. It did the government no favors in its quest to boost inoculation rates.
With a more coherent policy in place, it now seems more likely that the Bundesrepublik can reach its vaccination targets without implementing a vaccine mandate for all citizens. As we’ll now examine in greater detail through coverage of Germany’s nine hoisting Bundesliga locales, local public health metrics are all largely headed in the right direction.
FC Bayern München (at) VfB Stuttgart
Planned capacity = Geisterspiel
The BaWü regulations will actually permit some 750 visitors. How they are chosen remains a mystery. For all most of us know, it amounts to connected corporate individuals receiving a few free passes. The club itself will be hosting a vaccine drive at the Mercedes Benz Arena on the matchday and will also open up the venue for a national inoculation drive scheduled to take place both on Christmas and Boxing Day.
Stuttgart being the founding city of the “Querdenke movement”, the municipality itself and the state in which it resides counts as one of the most important battle grounds in the fight to get as many citizens as possible protected. So many hearts and minds need to be won in this part of Germany. One hopes that perspectives can be shifted outside of the intensive care wards.
Local RKI Incidence Rate = 539.7 per 100,000 (+124.2)
Intensive Care Occupancy @ 86.5 (-3.9%)
54 COVID Hospitalizations (24.8%) (-4.0%)
BaWü Vaccination Rate = 70.1% (+0.1%) (from yesterday)
FC Köln (at) VfL Wolfsburg
Planned capacity = 5,000 (16.67%)
The site of one of the round’s most important footballing duels will feature only a small number of live spectators. It’s quite possible that the locals won’t even drive this modest allotment to a sell-out either. Not given the form that their team is in. While there can continue to be legitimate sympathy for Wolfsburg being forced to operate under state-level restrictions that don’t necessarily apply to their small and rarely visited town, sympathy runs out for the actual team on the pitch. The squad has few excuses to fall back on.
In a sense, it’s even good news that a small town like this one has to close down in accordance with Lower Saxony’s “alarm level” regulations. Although the local situation produces no real imminent threat, a small contagion cluster could still tip the scales quickly in the company town. Pushing ones luck with hospital occupancy never constitutes a good idea, irrespective of tale the latest numbers tell. Playing it safe at this stage shouldn’t be frowned upon.
Local RKI Incidence Rate = 215.6 per 100,000 (+37.1)
Intensive Care Occupancy @ 48.1% (-0.3%)
6 COVID Hospitalizations (19.3%) (+3.2%)
Lower Saxony Vaccination Rate = 74.6% (even) (from yesterday)
Hertha BSC (at) FSV Mainz 05
Planned capacity = 10,000 (29.3%)
The Nullfünfter opted to self-regulate, lowering their capacity numbers below that which current law in the Palatinate permits. The club officially shut down any further ticket sales to the general public earlier this morning. This still translates to a sell out only if the season ticket holders who exercised their right to access actually opt to show up. We shall see if they do.
Rural areas in the Pfalz continue to exhibit incidence rate declines and their are plenty of free beds in local hospital’s. The situation in the state’s capital looks a bit more dire in large part because, it is reported, that Mainz hospitals are taking in a few more patients from the surrounding provincial districts. The city’s current intensive care occupancy rate, pushed to the absolute limit, likely heralds a stop to that practice.
Local RKI Incidence Rate = 203.6 per 100,000 (-27.6)
Intensive Care Occupancy @ 97.2% (+5.3%)
16 COVID Hospitalizations (15.4%) (-1.1%)
Rheinland-Pfalz Vaccination Rate = 73.7% (+0.4%) (from six days ago)
VfL Bochum (at) Arminia Bielefeld
Planned capacity = 13,650 (50%)
Despite some jawboning to the contrary, outdoor venues in Nordrhein-Westfalen are still permitted to operate at 50-percent capacity with a hard cap of 15,000 spectators. As we saw two rounds back in Bielefeld, that doesn’t automatically mean that local patrons will be coming out in droves to attend the football match. Only a little over 8,000 supporters went to the Alm last time.
A quick check on the club’s website confirms that there remain several thousand tickets still available for this evening’s fixtures. Attendance at the final home fixture of the calendar year should still be a bit higher this close to the holidays. The match itself serves as a light “Graue Maus” derby between two Westphalian clubs.
Local RKI Incidence Rate = 305.5 per 100,000 (+2.7)
Intensive Care Occupancy @ 85.0% (-2.86%)
19 COVID Hospitalizations (16.0%) (+4.3%)
NRW Vaccination Rate = 76.5% (even) (from yesterday)
Eintracht Frankfurt (at) Borussia Mönchengladbach
Planned capacity = 15,000 (27.7%)
Another NRW club permitted to allow in a comparatively large crowd may only end up letting a few thousand through the turnstiles. The club’s website still has loads of space available in Borussia Park as of this morning. Hometown fans surely still smart from that 0-6 shellacking against Freiburg from round 14. That’s a pretty bad burn for the locals.
The local public health metrics continue to look remarkably good for a town resting on another nation’s open border. The incidence rate flirts with that 100 per 100,000 level that once served as the “hot-spot” threshold during the third wave of the pandemic, when vaccines were only partially available. There we have an undeniably encouraging piece of data from somewhere.
Local RKI Incidence Rate = 130.2 per 100,000 (-26.2)
Intensive Care Occupancy @ 89.7% (-4.7%)
17 COVID Hospitalizations (20.2%) (+1.2%)
NRW Vaccination Rate = 76.5% (even) (from yesterday)
SpVgg Greuther Fürth (at) Borussia Dortmund
Planned capacity = 15,000 (18.4%)
We’ll very likely behold a sizable crowd at Signal Iduna. The obvious “strength of the opponent” factor might still preclude the match from selling out. The club’s website still has several thousand places available as of this morning. BVB season ticket holders aren’t terribly interested in dealing with the hassle and the general public can only take so many purchase-and-refund cycles.
The Schwarzgelben, along with “Eisern Union Berlin” of Köpenick, host the league’s best Christmas concerts; or at least they used to before the world forever changed that fateful spring nearly two years ago. Normal times will resume eventually. When they do, everyone should definitely check out the 81,365-strong Christmas choir that packs Signal Iduna to sing on a non-matchday during this time of year.
Local RKI Incidence Rate = 288.4 per 100,000 (+0.5)
Intensive Care Occupancy @ 93.6 (+1.7%)
24 COVID Hospitalizations (8.1%) (+1.1%)
NRW Vaccination Rate = 76.5% (even) (from yesterday)
TSG 1899 Hoffenheim (at) Bayer 04 Leverkusen
Planned capacity = 15,000 (49.7%)
Attendance figures in the town of Germany’s red company team came in rather low last time and there’s no real reason to think that they won’t again. Plenty of seats remain available at the BayArena. The opponent will interest few of the locals. The current form of the team might also scare a few more away.
Local public health metrics appear to be in good shape. This town saw several outbreaks during various phases of the pandemic. The worst appears far behind the city under the “Bayer cross”. Somewhat ironic that the big pharmaceutical hub ended up being a case study in “herd immunity”.
Local RKI Incidence Rate = 280.7 per 100,000 (-43.3)
Intensive Care Occupancy @ 87.0 (-1.4%)
12 COVID Hospitalizations (20.0%) (-3.0%)
NRW Vaccination Rate = 76.5% (even) (from yesterday)
SC Freiburg (at) FC Union Berlin
Planned capacity = 5,000 (27.2%)
Not much new to report here other than the fact that it should be a fun evening at the Stadion An der alten Försterei in Köpenick. A fixture like this–between two cult teams–would naturally be a lot more fun with a packed house and dueling fan sections. For now, an excellent match-up between two surprise Champions’ League contenders will simply have to suffice. Definitely one to circle in any case.
Local RKI Incidence Rate = 307.8 per 100,000 (-1.9)
Intensive Care Occupancy @ 89.7% (stable)
256 COVID Hospitalizations (24.7%) (stable)
Berlin City Vaccination Rate = 73.9% (+0.1%) (from yesterday)
RB Leipzig (at) FC Augsburg
Planned capacity = Geisterspiel
When it comes to public health metrics, both Augsburg and Munich provide very encouraging evidence that the measures taken did indeed avert a catastrophe. Not long ago, both Bavarian cities were flirting incidence rates that threatened to break above the 1,000 mark. Think what one will about the state’s governor Markus Söder, the premier probably earned the grin on his face today when he promised to roll back restrictions. In the end, he did it right.
Local RKI Incidence Rate = 316.1 per 100,000 (-91.6)
Intensive Care Occupancy @ 93.2% (-0.7%)
40 COVID Hospitalizations (29.0%) (-2.2%)
Bavaria Vaccination Rate = 70.2% (+0.1%) (from yesterday)
Thanks so much for reading!
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All columns debut on Bulinews before appearing on Peter’s website later in the week.