When it comes to the attendance columns, a two-parter over at Bulinews always gets melded into one here on the profile site. We’re reaching a bit into the past for this full-color re-post; way back to when certain things were up for discussion.
They have a point. As much as we’d all like to err on the side of caution, those of us who enthusiastically went to get our vaccine booster need to return to our normal lives at some point. Note that everyone who has watched a Bundesliga match live in the last month had to demonstrate proof of vaccination or recovery!
The obedient citizens are the ones in the stadium!
Bundesliga Fan Scene Report–Week 14
Our column checking in with the weekly state of the German footballing fan scene–since last week cleaved up into a two-parter–first takes a look at the attendance figures from the Bundesliga round just completed. At this stage of the pandemic in Germany, it’s fair to say that things have effectively stabilized policy-wise.
After the new federal governing coalition put into effect nationwide COVID policy mandates late last week, the country effectively has the guidelines, ground-rules, and general framework it needs to manage this phase of the pandemic. Germany’s 16 federal states also have their individual state-level policies in place, some of which add extra restrictions to the federal minimum standards.
To put it all in the simplest of terms, the rules for the next few months are here to stay. After a turbulent period of rapidly shifting restrictions and regulations, one can safely say that stability shall reign over the coming winter. This applies to most every facet of German public life, including and especially the one we happen to cover here at Bulinews.
Footballing attendance at venues across the country will be restricted to half-capacity with a upward limit of 15,000 spectators. Ghost games will be conducted in the German federal states of Saxony, Bavaria, and Baden-Württemberg. Seven Bundesliga clubs–RB Leipzig, FC Bayern München, FC Augsburg, SpVgg Greuther Fürth, SC Freiburg, TSG 1899 Hoffenheim, and VfB Stuttgart–will play without spectators.
The remaining 11 top tier sides will play before much smaller crowds. Barring something completely unforeseen, we behold the status quo that shall hold through February 2022. One topic of interest moving forward concerns whether clubs will attempt to purposefully reduce crowd size by imposing the so-called “2G+” regulation on themselves.
To review the two concepts currently controlling public access in Germany:
I. “2G” (“Geimpft” (vaccinated), “Genesen” (recovered)
Only citizens demonstrating proof of vaccination or recovery may attend an event or enter a space.
II. “2G+” (“Geimpft” (vaccinated), “Genesen” (recovered)
Only citizens demonstrating proof of vaccination or recovery may attend an event or enter a space. For areas deemed especially high-risk, the vaccinated or recovered must also present a negative COVID PCR test from the last 48 hours.
Based on the attendance figures from last weekend, it appears unlikely that clubs not required to adopt “2G+” will do so. The smaller crowd sixes indicate that the public will “self-regulate” under “2G”. Possible exceptions include the two clubs that did sell out this weekend. We’ll touch upon that as we examine the case of each club in turn.
RB Leipzig (at) 1. FC Union Berlin
Planned capacity = 13,506 (50%)
Attendance = 13,506 (sold out)
Concept = 2G
On the same day that the Berliner Senate passed new COVID-control measures for the capital, die Eisernen were able to sneak a larger sell-out crowd in under the wire. Atmospherics during Union’s 2-1 victory over RB Leipzig on Friday night were sensational. All Bundesliga lovers shall miss this set of spectators, who also put on the best of Germany’s football stadium Christmas Concerts every year. So much for that until normal times resume.
The new maximum crowd sizes of 5,000 should remain in effect well into the new year. They shall already be in effect as the Köpenickers get set to fight for the future of their European club tournament campaign on Thursday night at Hertha’s Olympiastadion. As one can see below, the public health metrics trend in the right direction only by the slightest of margins.
A “2G+” switch for Union Berlin remains a possibility.
Local RKI Incidence Rate = 342.7 per 100,000 (-18.6)
Intensive Care Occupancy @ 91.5% (-0.8%)
249 COVID Hospitalizations (23.1%) (+3.0%)
Berlin City-State Vaccination Rate = 72.9% (+0.6%)
SpVgg Greuther Fürth (at) Bayer 04 Leverkusen
Planned capacity = 15,000 (49.7%)
Attendance = 10,455 (69.7%)
Concept = 2G+
A considerable amount of vaccinated/recovered local supporters considered it worth both their time and money to obtain a negative PCR test in order to watch their Werkself live. Good to know that the spectators were well compensated for their dual investments. The same sadly cannot be said for the traveling contingent of some 500 Fürth fans, who probably concluded that catching COVID might have been preferable to watching this display.
Local metrics trend upward a bit, but it’s doubtful that the club may opt to self-impose some more restrictions. Bayer already go further than the current NRW law requires with their “2G+” entry requirements and the attendance figures above show that such measures compel the local population to opt out via their own volition.
Local RKI Incidence Rate = 324.0 per 100,000 (-7.9)
Intensive Care Occupancy @ 88.4% (+4.3%)
14 COVID Hospitalizations (23.0%) (+2.2%)
NRW Vaccination Rate = 76.1% (+0.7%)
Eintracht Frankfurt (at) TSG 1899 Hoffenheim
Planned capacity = Geisterspiel
Attendance = Geisterpsiel
Concept = N/A
For the purposes of this column, we’ll simply label all football matches with less than 1,000 live fans “ghost games”. Technically speaking, the Baden-Württemberg state statutes do permit 750 individuals to enter the stadium. Cameramen working the event can easily give a false impression by locating a pretty girl or two sporting a scarf in the stands. Unfortunately, that didn’t make keeping close tabs on Hoffenheim-Frankfurt any easier in itself.
The encounter itself had a full Geisterpiel effect to it. We can expect more of the same from this club, VfB Stuttgart, and SC Freiburg over the next couple of months. The BaWü restrictions aren’t going anywhere as–for reasons discussed in a previous column–this state’s vaccine rate can’t be expected to increase much over the next phase of the pandemic.
Local statistics fluctuate so wildly in the TSG’s region because the Rhein-Neckar District is actually a rural region with few cities and hospitals. Hoffenheim, even when playing in the district’s largest town (some 30,000 inhabitants) of Sinsheim, remain rather literally “the team from nowhere”.
Local RKI Incidence Rate = 415.2 per 100,000 (+12.6)
Intensive Care Occupancy @ 86.5% (-10.9%)
11 COVID Hospitalizations (34.4%) (+10.1%)
Baden-Württemberg Vaccination Rate = 69.6% (+0.6%)
VfL Wolfsburg (at) FSV Mainz 05
Planned capacity = 17,017 (90%)
Attendance = 10,000 (58.7%)
Concept = 2G
A vocal enough crowd cheered their Carnival Club onto a 3-0 win over Wolfsburg. There remained a notable enough difference in the amount of noise level from the Pfälzer than would exist under normal circumstances. Matters were definitely quiet enough to keep one’s mind sternly focused on the tactics of this match. In the context of the COVID Era, that’s actually an unwelcome development.
No data changes in the Pfälzer capital, where one could describe the local situation as relatively stable. The club will likely move to “2G+”, further depressing attendance figures in the near future. State-level regulations don’t appear to require any drastic changes yet. Some non-essential businesses in the Palatinate are still permitted to operate under “3G”.
Local RKI Incidence Rate = 231.2 per 100,000 (+7.9)
Intensive Care Occupancy @ 91.9% (level)
15 COVID Hospitalizations (16.5%) (level)
Rheinland-Pfalz Vaccination Rate = 73.3% (+0.5%)
VfL Bochum (at) FC Augsburg
Planned capacity = Geisterspiel
Attendance = Geisterspiel
Concept = N/A
A thoroughly entertaining football match deserved better than to be played before empty stands. One feels for the FCA supporters stuck in Germany’s most conservative state. They’ve been deprived of their local pride just as the team begins to gel and play serviceable football. A haunting scene at the WWK, where not even a handful of bedecked boosters are permitted in.
The good news out of Bavaria concerns the fact that local incidence rates are dropping across the state. It remains doubtful that any more districts will exceed 1,000 per 100,000. As a result, full cancelations aren’t a matter for concern. COVID hospitalizations unfortunately remain on the rise, but at least appeared to have plateaued for the time being.
Local RKI Incidence Rate = 407.7 per 100,000 (-120.3)
Intensive Care Occupancy @ 93.9% (+4.4%)
43 COVID Hospitalizations (31.2%) (+0.9%)
Bavaria Vaccination Rate = 69.8% (+0.6%)
FC Köln (at) Arminia Bielefeld
Planned capacity = 13,650 (50%)
Attendance = 8,231 (60.3%)
Concept = 2G
The round’s trend-defying and ultimately forgettable low-scoring affair drew decent attendance figures under the circumstances. Bear in mind just how much the live fans opting to come in person must deal with for the simple sake of watching a football match; one in which their team wasn’t even expected to do particularly well in at that. As always, there’s great loyalty on the northern Teutoburg fringes.
Incidence rates continue to climb steadily in this eastern section of NRW while, to the relief of all, a dangerous hospitalization wave appears to have passed through the intensive care units. Given the amount of restraint exercised by the local populace in the last home match, the club likely entertains no thoughts about switching to “2G+”.
Local RKI Incidence Rate = 302.8 per 100,000 (+46.4)
Intensive Care Occupancy @ 87.6% (-4.8%)
14 COVID Hospitalizations (11.7%) (-6.9%)
NRW Vaccination Rate = 76.1% (+0.7%)
FC Bayern München (at) Borussia Dortmund
Planned capacity = 15,000 (18.4%)
Attendance = 15,000 (sold out)
Concept = 2G
Absolutely zero surprise here. Plenty of ticket-seekers would be turned away for the Bundesliga’s premier summit. Dortmund could have cancelled the Friday sale of 15,000 tickets, made an about face and placed another 15,000 tickets on sale, and thousands of patrons would have paid twice to ensure that the next allotment sold out in 20 minutes.
We could see a move to “2G+” on behalf of the BVB as a means of instilling additional crowd reduction measures. Nordrhein-Westfalen being such a footballing hotbed–and there being Dortmund supporters in every last burgh–means that one won’t see much reticent in snatching up tickets. Of course, that hardly matters in an open-air venue as large as Signal Iduna.
Local RKI Incidence Rate = 287.9 per 100,000 (+16.0)
Intensive Care Occupancy @ 91.9% (-1.8%)
19 COVID Hospitalizations (7.3%) (+0.5%)
NRW Vaccination Rate = 76.1% (+0.7%)
Hertha BSC (at) VfB Stuttgart
Planned capacity = Geisterspiel
Attendance = Geisterspiel
Concept = N/A
It doesn’t get much sorrier than this. A pitiful excuse for a football match played in an empty stadium on what is notoriously one of the worst kept football pitches in all of German football. Just like in Sinsheim (above), there were some 750 spectators allowed in. The cameraman got shots of a few fans. Meh. That’s absolutely no consolation for those of forced to watch this farce of a fixture.
In the city where the “Querdenke” movement was founded, stats trend reliably upward in probably the largest vaccine hesitancy pocket located in the former West Germany. As everyone’s surely picked up by now, Bavaria and Baden-Württemberg have both the lowest vaccine rates and the heaviest restrictions.
Local RKI Incidence Rate = 415.5 per 100,000 (+70.3)
Intensive Care Occupancy @ 90.4% (+2.2%)
65 COVID Hospitalizations (28.8%) (+4.4%)
Baden-Württemberg Vaccination Rate = 69.6% (+0.6%)
SC Freiburg (at) Borussia Mönchengladbach
Planned capacity = 15,000 (27.7%)
Attendance = 10,025 (66.8%)
Concept = 2G
Following the 5-0 defeat of Bayern München in the Pokal some weeks back, the Gladbach fans got a taste of their own medicine. Yikes. Too late to offer everyone refunds for this? Good thing the foals aren’t operating under “2G+” just yet. At a bare minimum, the BMG would have needed to consider compensating everyone for their negative PCR tests.
Gladbach happens to be one of forty some odd districts in the Bundesrepublik exhibiting incidence rates more in line with the targets aimed for at the beginning of the pandemic. The local hospitals, with extra capacity, are reported to be taking in extra patients from across the the country and even some from just across the neighboring western border.
Local RKI Incidence Rate = 156.4 per 100,000 (-75.1)
Intensive Care Occupancy @ 94.4% (+0.2%)
18 COVID Hospitalizations (21.4%) (+3.0%)
NRW Vaccination Rate = 76.1% (+0.7%)
The second part of our weekly attendance feature takes a look at how things are shaping up ahead of the next Bundesliga round. We’ve already reported on the attendance figures in a column appearing earlier this week on Bulinews. The look ahead begins with the bad news that there will be four spectator-less matches in the Bundesliga this weekend.
Two Bavarian teams (FC Bayern München and SpVgg Greuther Fürth) must play behind closed doors. This also applies to the hosting Saxon club (RB Leipzig) and Baden-Württemberg’s Black Forest Representatives (SC Freiburg). The remaining five clubs operate under attendance restrictions that allow a maximum of half-capacity, capped at 15,000 live fans.
Only FC Köln and VfL Wolfsburg offer the maximum allotment of 15,000 tickets. VfL Bochum’s venue isn’t large enough to reach that mark. Hertha BSC and Eintracht Frankfurt come in below the federal maximum thanks to state-level restrictions. Only vaccinated and recovered fans can attend matches this weekend under the two concepts governing access to public life in Germany.
I. “2G” (“Geimpft” (vaccinated), “Genesen” (recovered)
Only citizens demonstrating proof of vaccination or recovery may attend an event or enter a space.
II. “2G+” (“Geimpft” (vaccinated), “Genesen” (recovered)
Only citizens demonstrating proof of vaccination or recovery may attend an event or enter a space. For areas deemed especially high-risk, the vaccinated or recovered must also present a negative COVID PCR test from the last 48 hours.
It’s actually the case that no Bundesliga club will utilize “2G+” this weekend. The states that require the additional measure either aren’t hosting fixtures this weekend or have opted for ghost-games entirely. An early projection of the number of sell-outs we’ll witness this weekend augurs three. Köln, Bochum, and Hertha should sell their full allotments.
FC Augsburg (at) 1. FC Köln
Planned capacity = 15,000 (30%)
Concept = 2G
All of the splendor associated with the Rhineland Derby from round 13 belongs to the past. It’s worth noting that German football’s last capacity crowd for quite some time did a fantastic job. The Friday night crowd may not even reach the 15,000 maximum as (as of this writing) there are still plenty of seats available. Current NRW regulations still permit the club to operate under “2G”, meaning that patrons will not have to pay for a negative PCR test.
Local public health metrics aren’t looking too bad either in Köln or most of the surrounding areas. The strong vaccination rate in North Rhine Westphalia generally keeps the hospitals clear of COVID cases and allows some fly-ins for intensive care beds and respirators. Die Geißböcke remain a club firmly committed to local vaccination efforts. The Effzeh have also gotten all players and staff inoculated.
Local RKI Incidence Rate = 392.3 per 100,000 (+97.2)
Intensive Care Occupancy @ 95.1% (+0.7%)
56 COVID Hospitalizations (16.0%) (+1.8%)
NRW Vaccination Rate = 76.2% (+0.8%) (from seven days ago)
FSV Mainz 05 (at) FC Bayern München
Planned capacity = Geisterspiel
Concept = N/A
No fans in the Allianz after Bavarian Premier Markus Söder ordered all sports venues shuttered as part of a statewide hard lockdown. As one can see below, this stringent policy measure has had the effect of drastically reducing the local incidence rate and stabilizing the hospitalization stats. With no shortage of dismay, one notes that the vaccination rate–the only way out of the restrictions–still isn’t rising terribly fast.
Local RKI Incidence Rate = 354.3 per 100,000 (-143.3)
Intensive Care Occupancy @ 94.6% (+1.1%)
145 COVID Hospitalizations (27.6%) (+1.6%)
Bavaria Vaccination Rate = 69.9% (+0.7%) (from seven days ago)
Borussia Mönchengladbach (at) RB Leipzig
Planned capacity = Geisterspiel
Concept = N/A
Saxon Proper–the very first German state to order turnstiles at the stadiums to be locked–can fortunately report drastic reductions in the local incidence rate. Hospitals are clearing as well. Fewer patients need to be flown to different parts of the country in search of beds and ventilators. Some areas of the state (notably Meißen and the Erzgebirge Kreis) nevertheless remain in terrible shape. Vaccination rates are a long way from the safe levels needed to exit the crisis.
Local RKI Incidence Rate = 618.9 per 100,000 (-277.2)
Intensive Care Occupancy @ 88.8% (+1.5%)
73 COVID Hospitalizations (23.7%) (+5.0%)
Saxon Proper Vaccination Rate = 61.4% (+1.2%) (from 14 days ago)
TSG 1899 Hoffenheim (at) SC Freiburg
Planned capacity = Geisterspiel
Concept = N/A
Freiburg shall be the third German city to host a ghost game this weekend. The Baden-Württemberg lockdown–just like the Bavarian and Saxon Proper one–was triggered by a state government that simply can’t chance it with a vaccination rate under 70 percent. Breisgauer supporters sadly have to miss out on a chance to watch their once again surging team, catapulted back into the title race after last week’s big win away at Gladbach. About the only good news one can report here concerns the fact that this state might be the first to exit lockdown early next year.
Local RKI Incidence Rate = 404.2 per 100,000 (+94.5)
Intensive Care Occupancy @ 91.6% (+2.4%)
43 COVID Hospitalizations (23.5%) (+10.9%)
BaWü Vaccination Rate = 69.7% (+0.7%) (from seven days ago)
Arminia Bielefeld (at) Hertha BSC
Planned capacity = 5,000 (6.7%)
Concept = 2G
At least “die alte Dame” will get a sell-out here. The country’s capital boasts way more that 5,000 fans willing to attend a football match under “2G” restrictions this weekend. Any Berlin club could sell out a 5,000 seat allotment. Even Tasmania or Tennis Borussia could hit that number easily if they were playing an Olympiastadion fixture.
Despite the fact that bars, clubs, and discos remain open in Berlin, the city-state isn’t doing all that badly insofar as its public health metrics are concerned. Plenty of residents apparently exercise self-restraint and the high vaccination rate accords solid protection. Regulations are definitely as strict as they will get.
Local RKI Incidence Rate = 352.8 per 100,000 (+1.8)
Intensive Care Occupancy @ 92.1% (-0.2%)
254 COVID Hospitalizations (23.7%) (+2.6%)
Berlin City Vaccination Rate = 73.0% (+0.7%) (from seven days ago)
Borussia Dortmund (at) VfL Bochum
Planned capacity = 13,800 (50%)
Concept = 2G
Tickets are no longer available online for what should prove a fantastic fixture. This matchup serves as the current Bundesliga field’s big “Revierderby”. With Schalke no longer in the Oberhaus, we still have this exciting meeting between the “Ruhrpott Rivals”. While it’s not technically confirmed that the 1848ers have sold all of their tickets, one can assume so. Expect a sell-out. Expect an upset while you’re at it. Bochum can potentially knock off the favorites here.
The local public health metrics lie almost precisely where they need to be in order for citizens to finally be free from this long and difficult pandemic. The numbers below essentially constitute “endemic level data”. One simply crosses ones fingers that this becomes the norm by next Christmas. Norms such as these lie within reach.
Local RKI Incidence Rate = 204.4 per 100,000 (+49.1)
Intensive Care Occupancy @ 86.2% (-3.0%)
17 COVID Hospitalizations (6.6%) (-3.7%)
NRW Vaccination Rate = 76.2% (+0.8%) (from seven days ago)
VfB Stuttgart (at) VfL Wolfsburg
Planned capacity = 15,000 (50%)
Concept = 2G
To the surprise of no one, plenty of seats are still available in the northern “Autostadt”. The club maintains the less restrictive “2G” regulation in accordance with state law. Patrons attending outdoor events don’t need to obtain a negative PCR test. That should drive up attendance a bit for what is, somewhat anticlimactically, the Saturday evening “Top-Spiel”.
When it comes to the local public health data, there have been some discrepancies in the numbers reported in Germany’s major papers of record. The week-on-week analysis lead this columnist to discover what appeared to be arithmetical errors on the part of some German journalists. It might also be the case that information on local intensive care units has simply been updated.
Whichever data sets one chooses to believe, the metrics lie far below danger levels. The “company town”, no doubt thanks in large part to the fact that it doesn’t receive many visitors from other areas of the country, serves as a “COVID Oasis” of sorts. As has been the case throughout the pandemic, Wolfsburg works as a fantastic locale to ride everything out.
Local RKI Incidence Rate = 246.3 per 100,000 (-1.6)
Intensive Care Occupancy @ 51.6% (-45.0%)
4 COVID Hospitalizations (12.9%) (-15.7%)
Lower Saxony Vaccination Rate = 74.3% (+1.3%) (from 14 days ago)
FC Union Berlin (at) SpVgg Greuther Fürth
Planned capacity = Geisterspiel
Concept = N/A
The other Bavarian team hosting a fixture this weekend will have to do so behind closed doors. Fürth, along with its much larger neighbor Nürnberg, provide two more encouraging case studies in how the new restrictions can drastically cut the incidence rate and get hospitalization numbers stable. Bavaria has certainly won a crucial first battle. Only with higher vaccination rates, however, can there be hope of winning the war.
Local RKI Incidence Rate = 409.4 per 100,000 (-213.0)
Intensive Care Occupancy @ 83.0% (+3.0%)
10 COVID Hospitalizations (27.8%) (stable)
Bavaria Vaccination Rate = 69.9% (+0.7%) (from seven days ago)
Bayer 04 Leverkusen (at) Eintracht Frankfurt
Planned capacity = 12,875 (25%)
Concept = 2G
Attendance at outdoor sporting events in Hessen is governed by a special formula that restricts stadiums to 25 percent capacity if the venue hosts more that 3,000 patrons. This is why the SGE can’t plan for 15,000 under the federal rules allowing such. Tickets remain on sale for club members wishing to attend the round’s capper on Sunday evening.
We might see a sell-out here as “2G+” will not be enforced and the local public health metrics lie at safe enough levels to keep potential guests comfortable. Just as they did during the last Bundesliga fixture that they hosted, Eintracht will host a vaccination drive outside the stadium. Fans can get their shot, get their “2G” card, and enter the stadium on the same day.
Local RKI Incidence Rate = 324.8 per 100,000 (-33.1)
Intensive Care Occupancy @ 92.5% (+2.2%)
50 COVID Hospitalizations (18.5%) (-1.8%)
Hessen Vaccination Rate = 72.1% (+1.4%) (from seven days ago)
Thanks so much for reading!
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All columns debut on Bulinews before appearing on Peter’s website later in the week.